Estimize has been crowdsourcing earnings estimates from thousands of hedge fund, brokerage, and independent analysts since 2012.
Every season, more and more contributors join Estimize from a range of financial and non-financial backgrounds.
Those contributors are rapidly approaching full coverage of the 3,000 most liquid companies on US exchanges.
More contributors producing more estimates has meant that the data set has become more accurate and more valuable each season.
The crowd is wiser. Our crowdsourcing experiment has been a massive success.
The Estimize Consensus is more accurate than the Wall Street Consensus about 70% of the time.
Not only that, the Estimize Consensus is more representative of true market expectations because it does not suffer from Wall Street biases. Three out of four companies beat the Wall Street Consensus, while only about half beat Estimize.
How does an open community outperform Wall Street so consistently? Sample size matters.
Not only is the Estimize community larger and more diverse than that of Wall Street, Estimize analysts also have clear incentives to be accurate.
All of our analysts are given a Confidence Score based on their past performance.
Our research indicates that non-professionals on Estimize are actually more accurate than financial professionals.